At 21:00 UTC on 10 October 2026, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) located Hurricane Simon near 17.6°N, 104.8°W, about 165 km south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Simon was moving north at 7 km/h, with maximum sustained winds of 240 km/h and minimum central pressure of 932 mb. It remained a Category 4 hurricane. Hurricane Warnings covered Punta San Telmo to El Roblito and Las Islas Marias; a Tropical Storm Watch covered the coast east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. Simon was expected near or just inland of Mexico’s west-central coast Sunday. NHC forecast 250–510 mm of rain over parts of southwestern Mexico, with isolated totals up to 760 mm in Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, and warned of life-threatening flooding, mudslides and dangerous storm surge near and east of landfall.
Separately, GDACS episode 13 classified Simon Red and modelled an overall maximum wind of about 250 km/h with roughly 620,000 people exposed to Category 1-or-stronger winds. These are dated forecast-model outputs, not confirmed counts of people affected, displaced, injured or killed. They are not combined with NHC observations. The earlier episode-12 snapshot, which modelled about 940,000 people in the Category 1-or-stronger wind footprint at 09:00 UTC, remains dated history.
Older episode-6 forecast models remain dated evidence: HWRF showed 162 km/h winds, storm surge up to 2.1 m and rainfall up to 1,149 mm; GFS showed 151 km/h winds, surge up to 1.7 m and rainfall up to 625 mm; ECMWF showed 162 km/h winds, surge up to 1.6 m and rainfall up to 449 mm. These are separate from current NHC observations and the later GDACS exposure snapshots. No confirmed casualty, displacement, affected-population, infrastructure-loss or procurement total is inferred.
07 Oct 2026 Mexico