Up to about 760,000 people are within the latest forecast footprint of Category 1-or-stronger winds from Tropical Cyclone Simon. The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) placed episode 4 on Red alert at 09:00 UTC on 8 October 2026, signalling high potential humanitarian impact. Its modelled overall cyclone-track maximum is 213 km/h, Category 4, while the current 72-hour maximum is 204 km/h. The episode summary separately lists 570,000 people exposed in Mexico. These are forecast-model outputs with different scopes, not confirmed counts of people affected, displaced, injured or killed. The earlier episode-3 Orange snapshot modelled about 90,000 people in the Category 1-or-stronger footprint, and the episode-2 Red snapshot modelled about 1.1 million; both remain dated history.
Forecasts differ. In the earlier GDACS episode-3 model snapshot, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) track gave a maximum of 204 km/h and a score of 1.5. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model showed 173 km/h winds, storm surge up to 2.1 m and rainfall up to 932 mm; the Global Forecast System model showed 151 km/h winds, storm surge up to 1.8 m and rainfall up to 606 mm; and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model showed 140 km/h winds, storm surge up to 2 m and rainfall up to 662 mm. These remain separate dated model outputs. WorldsAid has not combined them or presented them as observed impacts. The cited sources report no confirmed casualty, displacement, affected-population, infrastructure-loss or procurement total, and none is inferred.
At 15:00 UTC on 8 October, the United States National Hurricane Center recorded Simon as a tropical storm with sustained winds of 100 km/h and a minimum central pressure of 995 mb. It was centred at 15.4°N, 103.3°W and moving west at 7 km/h. Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch from Manzanillo to Punta Mita and a Tropical Storm Watch from east of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo. Rapid strengthening was forecast, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible from forecast rainfall. These observations and warnings remain separate from the GDACS modelled maximum-wind and exposure estimates.
07 Oct 2026 Mexico